Haiti is the most-studied, least-understood crisis in the Western Hemisphere. Billions in aid, security, and governance spending have failed to disrupt the extraction architecture that drives instability. The reason is structural: existing interventions address symptoms while the financial plumbing that sustains them remains unmapped.
International actors in Haiti operate with quantitative blindness. They can describe gang territory but cannot trace the financing. They can document displacement but cannot identify who profits from it. They can map aid flows in but cannot map extraction flows out. The missing layer is forensic economics... and nobody currently operating in the Haiti space provides it.
Canada's $14M regional maritime programme is active. UNODC Global Maritime Crime Programme is operational in Haiti with three years of in-country presence. USAID OTI is seeking transition-oriented research that connects security to economic structures. GI-TOC and InSight Crime are expanding Haiti coverage but lack quantitative extraction modeling. The infrastructure exists to absorb this capability... the capability itself does not yet exist in the field.
Two researchers. Complementary skill sets. Zero overlap.
Wesley traces the money. Mac traces the people. Wesley maps offshore entities and financial flows. Mac documents how those flows manifest on the ground. Wesley builds ghost ship trackers and maritime domain assessments. Mac documents what arrives and who it goes to. Wesley quantifies extraction with mathematical precision. Mac provides the ethnographic evidence of how extraction operates at community level. Together: Combining both forensic economics and field ethnography for Haiti's illicit economy.
Ghost ship tracking using AIS satellite data. Dark vessel prediction models. Gap analysis identifying vessels that disable transponders in Haitian waters. Automated alerts for anomalous maritime patterns. Integration with UNODC GMCP operational requirements.
Cross-referencing 494K ICIJ Offshore Leaks entities, 929K officers, and 3.5M relationships against Haiti-linked individuals and corporations. OFAC SDN screening. OpenSanctions integration. Corporate genealogy tracing across jurisdictions. Network visualization of beneficial ownership chains.
EEDTM extraction modeling: quantifying elite capture rates with mathematical precision. Unjust enrichment tracing. Defendant succession chains mapping liability across 200 years of corporate evolution. Revenue flow modeling from gang territories to elite beneficiaries. Validated across 25 cases totaling $8-12 trillion in documented damages.
Diamond Spear research framework: $77M infrastructure investment vs. $600M/year kinetic spending analysis. Mapping economic incentive structures that sustain armed group activity. Identifying the financial chokepoints where intervention can alter cost-benefit calculus for gang leadership.
BAM BAM syndicate analysis: six families (Bigio, Apaid, Mevs, Brandt, Acra, Madsen) controlling Haiti's economic chokepoints. Evidence compilation across corporate registries, offshore records, import/export data, and financial disclosures. Ethnographic documentation of how capture operates at institutional and community levels.
Automated screening of all vault defendants against OFAC SDN list and OpenSanctions database. Batch processing capability. Flag generation for individuals and entities with matches or near-matches. Compliance-grade output formatted for institutional use.
Real-time ethnographic reporting from southern Haiti. Market price monitoring. Security condition assessment. Community-level verification of remotely-generated intelligence. IBESR institutional access for child protection system monitoring. Bilingual (French/Creole) field operations in underserved regions.
GDELT Doc API integration for automated news monitoring across media sources. Keyword and entity-based alerting. Event tracking for Haiti-specific security and economic developments. Humanitarian data integration via HDX HAPI (displacement, funding, risk indicators). Economic baseline tracking for 21 countries via World Bank WDI.
This team is not proposing to build capability from scratch. The following products already exist and are deployment-ready.
Comprehensive assessment of Haiti's maritime security environment. Ghost ship detection methodology. AIS gap analysis for Haitian territorial waters. Dark vessel behavioral patterns and prediction models.
Full economic analysis of Haiti's armed group landscape. $77M infrastructure stabilization plan vs. $600M/year kinetic spending. Cost-benefit framework for intervention design. Gang revenue source mapping and chokepoint identification.
Six-family oligarchic network documentation. Offshore entity cross-references. Corporate registry analysis. Import/export concentration data. Financial flow mapping from legitimate commerce through elite capture mechanisms.
23-chart bilingual (English/French) forensic economics report. Full EEDTM application to Haiti. Theta validation. Defendant identification. Damages quantification. Prepared for the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti.
Python-based automated tracking system. Satellite AIS data ingestion. Anomaly detection for transponder gaps. Dark vessel prediction modeling. Configurable alert thresholds for Haitian maritime zones.
7-module integrated intelligence platform. Entity search (494K ICIJ entities, 929K officers, 3.5M relationships). OFAC SDN screening. World Bank economic indicators (21 countries, 18 indicators). GDELT news monitoring. HDX humanitarian data. SQLite database with TTL-based caching.
These products represent approximately 18 months of self-funded development. A donor engagement does not begin at zero... it begins with an operational toolkit and validated methodology. Funding accelerates deployment, not construction.
Three examples demonstrating the team's analytical output and the integration of forensic economics with field intelligence.
Full economic mapping of Haiti's armed group landscape. Identified that the international community spends approximately $600M/year on kinetic security responses while $77M in targeted infrastructure investment would alter the economic incentive structure sustaining gang operations. Mapped revenue streams including kidnapping, extortion, port control, and fuel distribution. Traced upstream financial flows from gang operations to elite beneficiary networks. The analysis reframes the security crisis as an economic optimization problem with identifiable intervention points.
Documentation of six families (Bigio, Apaid, Mevs, Brandt, Acra, Madsen) that collectively control Haiti's key economic chokepoints: ports, fuel distribution, banking, telecommunications, and import monopolies. Cross-referenced corporate registries with ICIJ Offshore Leaks data to map beneficial ownership structures across jurisdictions. Identified the financial architecture through which legitimate commerce generates extraction rents estimated at $6.5B annually (32.5% of GDP). Ethnographic field research documented how this capture manifests at community level through price controls, market access restrictions, and institutional gatekeeping.
Traced the world's second-largest ship registry (Liberia, operated by LISCR LLC in Virginia) as an extraction mechanism generating $75-150B in foregone revenue for the Liberian state. Mapped the corporate genealogy from Stettinius's original 1948 arrangement through the Cohen family's current operation. Identified how flag-of-convenience registration creates a legal architecture for regulatory arbitrage, tax avoidance, and labor exploitation. Theta = 0.9987 (the highest single-case extraction rate in the BARSS portfolio). Directly relevant to UNODC maritime crime programme objectives.
The team operates a five-phase intelligence cycle that integrates remote forensic analysis with on-the-ground ethnographic validation. Every quantitative finding is field-tested. Every field observation is quantified.
Target selection via GDELT monitoring, ICIJ entity search, OFAC screening, and field-sourced leads
BothOffshore entity networks, corporate genealogy, beneficial ownership chains, financial flow architecture
WesleyEEDTM extraction modeling, Theta calculation, damages estimation, revenue flow mapping
WesleyField verification, community-level evidence collection, institutional access, ethnographic documentation
MacPublication-ready intelligence products, Brattle-grade forensic reports, bilingual deliverables
BothThe Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model (EEDTM) is a forensic economics methodology that quantifies institutional extraction. Three key constants:
| Constant | Name | Value | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Θ (Theta) | Elite Capture Rate | ~0.80 | Proportion of extracted value retained by elite actors. Validated across 25 cases, 200 years, 4 continents. |
| Φ (Phi) | Upstream Constant | 0.40 | Financier's cut of extraction proceeds. The international banking share, stable across 500 years. |
| Γ (Gamma) | Differential Targeting | Variable | Ratio of extraction rates between targeted populations. Haiti 1825: ~6,500x. Subprime crisis: 3.2x. |
Three independent first-principles derivations of Theta converge at ~0.80: Tullock contest theory (game theory), Gruber-Saez revenue-maximizing taxation (public finance), and subsistence-floor extraction (principal-agent theory). The constant is not an empirical average... it is a structural prediction confirmed by observation.
| Module | Data Source | Coverage | Application |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economics | World Bank WDI | 21 countries, 18 indicators | Baseline economic profiling, comparative analysis |
| Entities | ICIJ Offshore Leaks | 494K entities, 929K officers, 3.5M relationships | Offshore network mapping, beneficial ownership tracing |
| Screener | OFAC SDN + OpenSanctions | Global sanctions lists | Compliance screening, sanctions exposure assessment |
| Events | GDELT Doc API | Global real-time media | News monitoring, event tracking, media analysis |
| Displacement | HDX HAPI | IDPs, funding, risk indicators | Humanitarian context, displacement tracking |
| Maritime | AIS satellite data | Haitian territorial waters | Ghost ship tracking, dark vessel prediction |
| Database | SQLite (WAL mode) | All modules cached | TTL-based caching, query optimization |
Three tiers designed for different donor appetites and operational timelines. All tiers include both team members. Products are additive... each tier includes everything in the tier below it.
Ranges reflect geographic scope and analytical depth, not quality variation. All tiers produce publication-grade output. Budgets include field travel, data access costs, and equipment. Overhead rate is minimal... this is a lean operation, not an institutional bureaucracy. Flexible scoping available for donors with specific requirements outside these tiers.
| Donor / Programme | Alignment | Recommended Tier |
|---|---|---|
| UNODC Global Maritime Crime Programme | Maritime domain awareness, ghost ship tracking, flag-of-convenience analysis, port security | Tier 2 or 3 |
| Canada Regional Maritime Programme ($14M) | Caribbean maritime security, illicit flow interdiction, regional data sharing | Tier 2 |
| USAID Office of Transition Initiatives | Transition-oriented research connecting security to economic structures, intervention design | Tier 2 or 3 |
| Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime | Organized crime research, elite-gang nexus, financial flow forensics | Tier 1 or 2 |
| InSight Crime | Quantitative backbone for qualitative gang reporting, EEDTM methodology | Tier 1 |
| ACLED / GDELT-Adjacent Funders | Event data integration, conflict economics, extraction-violence correlation | Tier 1 or 2 |
This document was prepared for donor engagement discussions initiated through UNODC Global Maritime Crime Programme, Haiti. For follow-up, sample deliverables, or scoping conversations:
BARSS-2026-JV-001 | PROFILE 1: ILLICIT ECONOMIES & EXTRACTION TRACING | MARCH 2026