IJDH Response: Social Media Toolkit

The Arithmetic of Crisis | BARSS-HTI-IJDH-2026-001 | 4 pieces, ready to deploy
View Full Report (23 Charts) →
PIECE 1 OF 4

LinkedIn Repost Caption

LinkedIn
IJDH documented the crisis. Let me add the math. Haiti's police force (PNH) killed 3,225 people in 2025 with approximately 1,000 combat-effective officers. That is 3.225 kills per officer per year. For comparison: - Brazil (international crisis): 0.0128 kills/officer - United States: 0.00204 kills/officer - United Kingdom: 0.0000133 kills/officer Haiti's per-officer lethality is 1,585x the US rate. 253x Brazil. 242,600x the UK. Meanwhile, Haiti's private security contracts total $6.5 billion... 32.5% of GDP. Higher than North Korea (24-26%). Matched only by Ukraine (34%), which is fighting an existential war against a nuclear power. The US spent 41% of GDP in 1944 and defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan simultaneously. Haiti is spending 32.5% and cannot open an airport. Full quantification of every number in the IJDH report (23 charts, every variable defined): https://analyticsresearchsciencesorcercies.github.io/barss-reports/BARSS_Report_IJDH_EEDTM_Response.html
PIECE 2 OF 4

Comment on IJDH's Post

LinkedIn Comment
Thank you for this work. 445 endnotes across 20 pages... the most thorough documentation of the crisis available. I ran every number in your report through the Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model (EEDTM), a forensic economics framework validated across 20 cases spanning 200 years and four continents. Some findings: The three mega-contracts (Vectus, Evergreen, Metric) total $6.5B... 32.5% of GDP. The only countries in history to hit 30%+ were fighting total wars: US 1944 (41%), USSR 1943 (61%), Japan 1944 (80%). Every one experienced economic devastation. $6.5B = 84 Diamond Spear gang buyouts ($77M each = the entire gang network dissolved through economic attrition). Or 16.25 million teacher-years. Or the entire humanitarian ask funded 24.8 times. The violence data (Surin 2026, 98 months of autoregressive analysis) shows homicides and gang activity follow completely different dynamics. Homicide persistence: rho=0.95, half-life 13.8 months. Clashes: rho=0.57, half-life 1.2 months. Military operations target the 5-week clock. The deaths are on a 14-month clock. The $6.5B is aimed at the wrong problem. The diaspora sends $4.1B/year. Evergreen's 3% customs fee on all imports means they are paying the surcharge that funds the drones that kill their neighbors. Full report (23 charts, every IJDH section quantified, every variable defined for cold readers): https://analyticsresearchsciencesorcercies.github.io/barss-reports/BARSS_Report_IJDH_EEDTM_Response.html Wesley Bertil BARSS Research

PIECE 3 OF 4

Substack Article: The Arithmetic of Crisis

Substack
The Arithmetic of Crisis Every number in IJDH's Haiti report, quantified. 13,244 dead. $6.5 billion in contracts. 32.5% of GDP. Higher than North Korea. --- In March 2026, the Institute for Justice & Democracy in Haiti published "Human Rights and the Rule of Law in Haiti: Key Recent Developments, July 2025 through February 2026." Twenty pages. 445 endnotes. The most thorough documentation of Haiti's crisis available from any single source. I took every number in that report and ran it through the Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model (EEDTM)... a forensic economics framework I've validated across 20 cases spanning 200 years and four continents. The results are devastating. Not because the crisis is worse than we thought. Because the math shows exactly how irrational the response is. WHO IS KILLING HAITIANS? IJDH documents 13,244+ people killed in 2025 by all actors combined: Armed groups: 8,100 (Non-state) Police (PNH): 3,225 (State) Drone strikes (Vectus): 1,243 (State contractor) Defense groups: 676 (Non-state) Extrajudicial (police): 275 (State) Over half of all killings are by state security forces... the entities ostensibly there to protect the population. The drone program killed 1,243 people and captured zero top gang leaders. Zero. The Destruction-Capture Ratio = infinity. The violence is not a means to an end. It IS the product. 3.225 KILLS PER OFFICER The PNH has approximately 1,000 combat-effective officers. Those officers killed 3,225 people in 2025. That is 3.225 kills per officer per year. Here is what that means in context: Haiti PNH: 3.225 kills/officer (baseline) Brazil: 0.0128 kills/officer (Haiti is 253x worse) United States: 0.00204 kills/officer (Haiti is 1,585x worse) Mexico: 0.00098 kills/officer (Haiti is 3,300x worse) Canada: 0.00039 kills/officer (Haiti is 8,300x worse) United Kingdom: 0.0000133 kills/officer (Haiti is 242,600x worse) Brazil's police violence is an international crisis that draws UN condemnation. Haiti's per-officer rate is 253 times worse. The United States has a documented civil rights emergency around police violence. Haiti is 1,585 times worse per officer. This is not "excessive force" on a sliding scale. This is a categorically different institution. The PNH's lethality exceeds most military forces in active combat. 32.5% OF GDP ON PRIVATE CONTRACTS Three contracts signed by PM Fils-Aime with zero parliamentary approval: Vectus Global / Windward Wyoming LLC: $52M/year. Erik Prince (sole shareholder via Windward Holdings Abu Dhabi). 1,243 drone kills, zero leaders captured. Evergreen Trading System Ltd (UAE consortium): $500-542M over 10 years. 3% fee on ALL imports plus 20%/15% of customs surplus. Vincent Roy Gordon heads both Evergreen AND Windward Holding LLC (Prince's company). Metric Correctional Facility S.A.: $85.4M build plus $6B+ over 50 years. $22/inmate/day with 75% occupancy guarantee. Haiti finances 75% of construction from its own central bank reserves. Raymond Roberty (Sunrise, FL) + Ricardo Cheaz (Panama/DR). Total: $6.5 billion+. Haiti's entire GDP is $20 billion. That is 32.5% of GDP on private security contracts. Compare that to the most militaristic nations on Earth: Haiti (contracts): 32.5% - Not at war. No parliament vote. Ukraine: 34% - Fighting existential ground war vs nuclear power North Korea: 24-26% - 1.2M active military, nuclear program Israel (wartime): 8.8% - Active Gaza/Lebanon operations Russia (wartime): 7.1% - Invading Ukraine United States: 3.4% - $916B, largest on Earth Global average: 2.5% - SIPRI 2024 Haiti exceeds North Korea. Matches only Ukraine (which is fighting for national survival) and WWII combatants. The US spent 41% of GDP in 1944 and defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan simultaneously. Haiti is spending 32.5% and cannot open an airport. THE DIASPORA IS FINANCING ITS OWN EXTRACTION The Haitian diaspora sends $4.1 billion annually in remittances... 20% of GDP. That money enters Haiti and flows through the BAM BAM import monopoly (six families control consumer imports). Every import now carries Evergreen's 3% customs surcharge. Diaspora remittances: $4.1B/year to families in Haiti Spent on imports (80% import-dependent): ~$3.3B to BAM BAM monopoly BAM BAM markup (30-40%): ~$1.0-1.3B to Bigio, Apaid, Mevs, Brandt, Acra, Madsen Evergreen 3% customs fee: ~$99-132M/year to Vincent Roy Gordon / Erik Prince Vectus drone operations: $52M/year to Erik Prince Total new contracts = 1.59x annual diaspora remittances. The people sending money to keep their families alive are paying the customs surcharge that funds the drones that kill their neighbors. THE VIOLENCE IS GETTING DEADLIER, NOT BIGGER Surin (2026) analyzed 98 months of violence data using autoregressive models. The finding demolishes the premise behind every security contract: Deaths and gang operational activity follow completely different dynamics. Homicides: persistence 0.95, half-life 13.8 months. Climate change. Once installed, stays for years. Kidnappings: persistence 0.80, half-life 3.1 months. Flood. Takes months to recede. Events/Clashes: persistence 0.57, half-life 1.2 months. Straw fire. Spectacular but brief. Military operations can disrupt clashes (half-life: 5 weeks) and depress kidnappings (half-life: 3 months). They cannot move the homicide curve. No 6-month operation changes it. 90% dissipation takes 4 years. Only permanent infrastructure modifies the homicide trajectory. Meanwhile, the lethality ratio (deaths per violent event) has risen from 0.39 in 2018 to 1.89 in 2025. Five times deadlier. The violence is not getting bigger. Each event just kills more people. The $6.5 billion targets the 5-week clock while the bodies pile up on the 14-month clock. WAR AND PEACE: TWO WAYS TO SPEND $6.5 BILLION Dead civilians: WAR = 13,244+ / PEACE = 0 Gang leaders captured: WAR = 0 / PEACE = All (Diamond Spear: $77M x 84) Airports reopened: WAR = 0 / PEACE = 1 Teacher-years funded: WAR = 0 / PEACE = 16.25 million Houses built: WAR = 0 / PEACE = 2.17 million Solar connections: WAR = 0 / PEACE = 21.7 million Humanitarian asks funded: WAR = 0 / PEACE = 24.8 full cycles $6.5 billion covers Diamond Spear 84 times. You could buy out the gangs, rebuild every school, fund every hospital, connect every household to solar power, and still have change left over. Instead, Haiti got drones, a prison nobody asked for, and a customs contract that charges the diaspora to fund its own extraction. tau = 0.953 Formula 39: Life Expectancy = 84 - 20*tau Haiti's observed life expectancy: 64.9 years. Solving: tau = 0.953. Haiti retains 4.7 cents of every dollar it produces. The rest is extracted. The Dominican Republic shares the same island. Same hurricanes. Similar population. GDP per capita: $10,876 vs Haiti's $2,143. A 5.1x gap. The tau computed from that gap: 0.803. That number equals Theta, the universal extraction constant validated across 20 cases spanning 200 years. Same island. Same starting point. $240.9 billion in compounded extraction. Full report with 23 interactive charts: https://analyticsresearchsciencesorcercies.github.io/barss-reports/BARSS_Report_IJDH_EEDTM_Response.html Wesley Bertil | BARSS Research | Reparations Finance Lab Sources: IJDH Human Rights Update (March 2026), World Bank WDI, SIPRI Yearbook 2025, Mapping Police Violence, Surin (2026), ICIJ Offshore Leaks, IOM, OCHA, UNODC, DCAF, HMICFRS, Bertelsmann Transformation Index, BLS, StatCan, Pivot Legal, IOPC

PIECE 4 OF 4

LinkedIn Newsletter: Open Letter to the Most Deadly Force on Earth

LinkedIn Newsletter / The Wandering Man
An Open Letter to the Most Deadly Force on Earth The Wandering Man By Wesley Bertil | March 13, 2026 --- 3,225 people killed. By approximately 1,000 officers. In one year. That is 3.225 kills per officer. --- Dear PNH, You are the most lethal police force ever documented. I don't mean that rhetorically. I mean I went looking for a police force anywhere on Earth, at any point in history, with a higher per-officer kill rate than yours, and I could not find one. Not Brazil, whose police violence is an international crisis that draws annual UN condemnation. Their rate is 0.0128 kills per officer. You are 253 times worse. Not the United States, where police violence has triggered a nationwide civil rights movement, congressional hearings, consent decrees, and a Department of Justice pattern-or-practice investigation in a dozen cities. Their rate is 0.00204. You are 1,585 times worse. Not Mexico, where police operate in active cartel war zones, where 2,638 officers have been murdered in six years, where entire departments have been dissolved for corruption. Their rate is 0.00098. You are 3,300 times worse. Not the United Kingdom, which has 150,000 officers and killed 2 people last year. Their rate is 0.0000133. You are 242,600 times worse. Two hundred and forty-two thousand six hundred times. Let me say that again because the number is so absurd it feels like a typo. If the UK's police force operated at your rate, they would kill 483,750 people per year. That is the population of Manchester. Every year. Gone. THE SCORECARD I ran you through every professional policing framework I could find. The metrics that police forces use to evaluate themselves. Not my standards. Yours. UNODC says the global median is 3.0 officers per 1,000 residents. You have 0.085. That is 35 times below the floor. The UK's HMICFRS expects a 15-minute urban response time. You have no dispatch system. Response time: infinity. The Peelian Principles... the nine foundational rules of professional policing written in 1829 that every English-speaking police academy teaches on Day 1... you score 0 out of 9. DCAF Geneva's Security Sector Governance framework has 6 pillars. You meet 0. The Bertelsmann Transformation Index rates state functionality on a 10-point scale. You score 2.47. That is 127th out of 137 countries evaluated. The three countries below you are South Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia. Your clearance rate... the percentage of crimes you actually solve... is estimated at less than 5%. Japan's is 96%. The United States, which Americans consider embarrassingly low, is 55%. You have 32 vehicles. For the entire force. Donated. WHAT $251 MILLION BUYS You receive approximately $251 million per year. Here is what that money produces: 3,225 dead. Zero gang leaders captured. Zero territory reclaimed. 0 out of 9 Peelian principles met. 0 out of 6 DCAF pillars met. Less than 5% clearance rate. No dispatch system. 32 vehicles. If I gave $251 million to a random number generator and told it to allocate funds to policing, it would, by pure chance, occasionally produce a functional patrol. You have not managed this. The IDR... the Institutional Dampening Ratio, which measures how much of your violence translates into any form of institutional accountability... is 0.07. On a scale where 1 means "institutions work" and 0 means "total collapse," you score 7%. Ninety-three percent of what you do produces no institutional output of any kind. Not policing. Not investigation. Not prosecution. Not even documentation. It just... dissipates. Into entropy. Into 3,225 bodies. YOU ARE NOT AN EXTRACTION FORCE I want to be precise about this. Calling you an "extraction force" would imply you are designed to extract value. That would imply competence. That would imply someone, somewhere, benefits from what you do in a deliberate, organized way. The truth is worse. You are a catastrophic institutional failure whose operational output is indistinguishable from extraction. You are not stealing. You are breaking. The $251 million enters your institution and 93% of it converts into nothing... no patrols, no investigations, no prosecutions, no territorial control... just conditions that perpetuate the need for more funding, more contracts, more Vectus. The remaining 7% translates into 3,225 deaths and a PLI of 3.225 kills per officer... a number so far beyond any documented police force that it sits in a category by itself. This is worse than deliberate extraction. Deliberate extraction is at least efficient. You are a machine that converts public funds into human death at industrial scale, with no beneficiary except the chaos that justifies more spending on people like Erik Prince. THE CONTEXT While you kill 3,225 people per year with no results, the Haitian government has signed $6.5 billion in private security contracts. That is 32.5% of GDP. Higher than North Korea. Matched only by Ukraine, which is fighting a ground war against a nuclear power, and by WWII combatants. The United States spent 41% of GDP in 1944. It defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan simultaneously. Got postwar superpower status. Built the interstate highway system with the leftover institutional capacity. Haiti is spending 32.5% and cannot open an airport. $6.5 billion is 84 Diamond Spears. That is the economic attrition model for dissolving the entire gang network... leader stipends, fighter reintegration, community infrastructure, transitional justice. Total cost: $77 million. You could buy out every gang in Haiti 84 times for what was spent on contracts that produced nothing. Or 16.25 million teacher-years. Or 2.17 million houses. Or the entire humanitarian ask funded 24.8 times. Meanwhile, the diaspora sends $4.1 billion per year in remittances. Every dollar flows through the BAM BAM import monopoly. Every import now carries a 3% surcharge to Evergreen Trading System Ltd... a UAE shell company whose head, Vincent Roy Gordon, also runs Erik Prince's Windward Holding LLC. The diaspora is financing its own extraction. They send money to keep their families alive, and a piece of every dollar pays the customs fee that funds the drones that kill their neighbors. THE VIOLENCE IS ON A DIFFERENT CLOCK Here is the part that should terrify you. Surin (2026) analyzed 98 months of your violence data. Homicides, kidnappings, and clashes follow completely different dynamics. Clashes have a persistence coefficient of 0.57. Half-life: 5 weeks. A straw fire. Spectacular but brief. Kidnappings: 0.80. Half-life: 3.1 months. A flood. Takes time to recede. Homicides: 0.95. Half-life: 13.8 months. Climate change. Once they install, they stay for years. Military operations... drones, patrols, checkpoints... can disrupt clashes. They can depress kidnappings. They cannot touch the homicide curve. The homicide half-life is 13.8 months. No 6-month operation changes it. Ninety percent dissipation takes 46 months. Four years. The lethality ratio... deaths per violent event... has gone from 0.39 in 2018 to 1.89 in 2025. Five times deadlier. The violence is not getting bigger. Each event just kills more people. More weapons. More ammunition. More organizational capacity. This trend has never reversed. The $6.5 billion targets the 5-week clock. The bodies pile up on the 14-month clock. Only permanent local infrastructure... police stations that stay, peace judges that adjudicate, employment that pays... modifies the homicide trajectory. You are not that infrastructure. You are the opposite of it. THE ASK IJDH just published "Human Rights and the Rule of Law in Haiti." Twenty pages. 445 endnotes. Every section documents what you and the state security apparatus are doing to the Haitian people. I quantified every number in their report. 23 charts. Every Greek letter defined. Every formula sourced. Every defendant named. tau = 0.953. Haiti retains 4.7 cents of every dollar it produces. The Dominican Republic shares your island. Same hurricanes. Same latitude. Similar population. GDP per capita: $10,876 versus your $2,143. The gap, computed as a tau value: 0.803. That number equals Theta... the universal extraction constant I've validated across 20 cases spanning 200 years and four continents. Same island. Same starting point. $240.9 billion in compounded extraction. And the ratio of actual to counterfactual GDP equals the same constant that appears everywhere else in the world where elites systematically steal from populations. Haiti is not an anomaly. Haiti is the pattern, expressed at maximum volume. And you... 3,225 dead, zero accountability, zero results, $251 million consumed, 93% institutional failure... you are the soundtrack. --- 3,225 moun mouri. Pa gen yon sel chef gang yo arete. Pa gen yon sel teritwa yo reprann. $251 milyon dola. Chak ane. Sa a pa polis. Sa a pa sekirite. Sa a se echek total ki pwodui ekstraksyon. --- Wesley Bertil is the founder of BARSS LLC and the author of the EEDTM framework. His research documents $8-12 trillion in elite extraction across 20 cases, 200 years, and four continents. He is not a police officer. But if he were, he would have solved at least one crime by now. Full report with 23 interactive charts: https://analyticsresearchsciencesorcercies.github.io/barss-reports/BARSS_Report_IJDH_EEDTM_Response.html Sources: IJDH, "Human Rights and the Rule of Law in Haiti" (March 2026) Mapping Police Violence 2024 / Bureau of Labor Statistics Statista Brazil Police Violence (2023) UK Independent Office for Police Conduct (2023/24) SIPRI Yearbook 2025 / World Bank WDI Surin (2026), "Algorithm of Death" (98 months, AR models) UNODC Global Study on Homicide DCAF Security Sector Governance Framework HMICFRS PEEL Assessment Framework Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2024 StatCan / Pivot Legal Society (Canada) Vision of Humanity (Mexico) Prison Policy Initiative (international comparison)