WILMINGTON, DELAWARE
Reconstructed HOLC Residential Security Map · 1940 Census
Grade Distribution
■ B: 1
■ C: 71 (63%)
■ D: 41 (36%)
1940 Census
| Population |
109,010 |
| Black / African American |
13,852 (12.7%) |
| Foreign-Born |
10,119 (9.3%) |
| Enumeration Districts |
113 |
Racial Sorting (1940)
|
Grade C |
Grade D |
Ratio |
| % Black |
1.2% |
31.5% |
27.3x |
| Median Income |
$1,216 |
$713 |
1.70x |
85-Year Persistence
| Black Denial Rate (2022) |
|
| In predicted C areas |
17.7% |
| In predicted D areas |
31.6% |
| D/C Ratio |
1.79x |
Neighborhoods predicted to have been redlined in the 1940s
still show elevated mortgage denial 85 years later...
in a city HOLC never surveyed.
Model
Ordered Probit + GBM Ordinal Ensemble
Trained on 2,130 HOLC-graded areas (39 mid-Atlantic cities)
Source: THOLCADS (Markley 2023), IPUMS 1940 Full-Count
ED Polygons: Huang et al. (2025)
HMDA: CFPB 2022 LAR
Mean confidence: 81.7%
BARSS Research, 2026