SANKEY: WHERE THE OCEAN VALUE GOES — Haiti captures $38M. Peers capture hundreds of millions.
Haiti's 11.7M people share the smallest maritime space per person of any Caribbean nation... 145x less than the Bahamas.
Haiti's EEZ is roughly HALF the Dominican Republic's despite sharing the same island.
Haiti generates $0.30 per km2 of its EEZ. The Bahamas generates $1,832. That is a 6,107x gap.
Even at Kiribati rates (fishing licenses only), Haiti could earn 21x what it currently captures.
Haiti's maritime domain could generate $118-255M/year vs the current ~$30-50M... almost entirely artisanal.
Among Greater Antilles nations, Haiti ranks LAST in EEZ per capita despite having the second-longest coastline.
Haiti captures 0.02-0.04% of what comparable Caribbean nations extract from equivalent maritime space.
Seven opacity-flagged states logged 64,008 hours in Haiti's EEZ... concentrated at Ile de la Gonave, which has no commercial port.
The flags rated most opaque (Comoros 5/5, Togo/Vanuatu/Tanzania 4/5) log thousands of hours in waters Haiti cannot monitor.
When you weight opacity by time spent, Vanuatu and Togo dominate... both Paris MOU Black List flags with documented drug seizures.
All seven flags are ITF-listed Flags of Convenience. Three have documented drug seizures. One has an EU-sanctioned operator.
Depending on how 'baseline' is defined (a term NOT made public), Haiti pays Erik Prince $472M to $2.95B over 10 years.
Full customs modernization costs $35-55M one-time. Vectus costs $472M-$2.95B AND Haiti loses 20-23% of revenue permanently.
The entire customs modernization... scanners, training, anti-corruption, IT... costs less than ONE YEAR of Vectus commissions.
At even the most conservative recovery estimate (10%), customs modernization pays for itself within one year.
ASYCUDA consistently delivers 10-128% revenue increases. Haiti already has it partially deployed... just needs full activation.
The Vectus contract extracts revenue while providing zero institutional development. Modernization does everything Vectus doesn't.
Haiti's $35-55M modernization is normal by global standards. Jamaica did it for $4M. Vectus charges 50-700x these benchmarks.
Upgrading Cap-Haitien to handle 50,000 containers/year costs $79-141M... less than ONE YEAR of Vectus extraction under the moderate scenario.
Cap-Haitien's upgrade cost falls squarely within Caribbean port investment norms. This is not unprecedented.
Upgrading Cap-Haitien to 100K TEU would let it handle 56% of Haiti's pre-crisis container trade... a lifeline when PAP is gang-controlled.
Source-side interdiction in Florida costs $50-$6,000 per firearm. Destination-side in Haiti costs $50,000-$600,000. A 10x to 1,000x difference.
$25M/year... 1.9% of the MSS budget... buys a comprehensive source-side firearms interdiction program targeting the Florida corridor.
The MSS spends $600M/year and doesn't track firearms. CBSI spends $88M and can't measure results. $25M at source could intercept 500-2,000+ guns.
ATF has 857 inspectors for 128,690 gun dealers. 2,200+ have NEVER been inspected. This is the pipeline that arms Haiti's gangs.
RAND proved it in 1994: the closer you intervene to the source, the cheaper it is. For firearms, source = the FFL in Hialeah, not the dock in PAP.
$5M/year buys complete maritime domain awareness of Haiti's 1,771 km coastline. That is 0.83% of the MSS kinetic budget.
Even the minimum viable option ($2.8M) gives Haiti more maritime awareness than it has ever had in its 222-year history.
The US spends $1B/year on Caribbean counter-narcotics. Haiti's complete maritime surveillance costs $5M... a rounding error.
SAR reliably detects metal and fiberglass trafficking vessels. Small wooden boats remain the hardest target... requiring drone + optical + RF combination.
The CPT allocated $917M for investment and executed only 25%. $688M vanished into 'unspent' status with no published financial statements.
22 months of CPT governance: GDP contracted 7%, textile jobs collapsed 38%, 1.2 million more people went hungry.
Budget execution collapsed from a normal 65% to just 25% under the CPT. Three-quarters of the investment budget went nowhere.
Haiti received $4.237B in PetroCaribe funds. Over $2B was embezzled or wasted. Zero prosecutions. Zero convictions. Zero asset recovery.
Only 34% of humanitarian needs are funded. Of what's committed, USAID froze $330M. Aid Theta = 0.66.
Haiti pays Erik Prince $192M/year... 1.6x its healthcare budget, 2.4x its police budget, 2.5x its military budget.
For what Haiti pays Vectus in ONE year: 640 schools, or 960,000 water connections, or 640,000 solar homes.
$50M spent. Zero gang leaders eliminated. Zero territory reclaimed. 559 civilians dead including 16 children.
The per-capita extraction ($165 vs 166 francs) is structurally identical. In 1825 Haiti at least got recognition. In 2025 it gets 559 dead civilians.
Vectus charges 3-6x the global standard fixed fee, takes a commission with NO industry precedent, and locks in for 3x the standard duration.
Over 10 years, Haiti transfers $1.92B to Erik Prince. That is 6,400 schools, or a functioning national health system, or universal electricity.
In 2008, Haiti needed $79,000 in basic equipment to begin mapping its own seafloor. 10 donor nations funded a training course instead. Nobody funded the equipment.
The same coast guard commander (Wagnac) appears in BOTH the 2008 and 2017 reports asking for the same charts. 18 years. Same situation.
Haiti can't see its waters ($79K gap) so it can't measure what's taken (Theta 0.96-0.98) so it can't enforce against ghost ships (64,008 hrs) so it can't generate revenue ($0.30/km2). Cycle repeats.
The opacity flags don't just exploit weak enforcement. They exploit TOTAL BLINDNESS. Bolivia's ships spend 10,488 hours in Haiti's EEZ because Haiti literally cannot see them.
$77M/year buys: source-side gun interdiction + eyes on every beach + full customs modernization + a functioning second port. That is 12.8% of what the MSS costs.
The MSS annual budget could fund ALL FOUR Diamond Spear components for nearly 8 years. Instead it funds drone strikes on birthday parties.