BARSS · Forensic Economics
BARSS-2026-USAID-HTI-001 · APRIL 2026
BARSS Forensic Report Series

The Arithmetic of Aid

A Forensic Analysis of USAID Fund Flows to Haiti, 2010–2026
1,282 Awards · $3.085 Billion · 16 Fiscal Years · Φ = 0.987
Wesley Bertil
BARSS LLC (Bertil's Analytics Research Sciences & Sorceries)

Prepared for: World Bank / IMF Spring Meetings Roundtable
April 15, 2026
April 2, 2026
REPORT BARSS-2026-USAID-HTI-001
Total Awards
1,282
FY2010–FY2026
Total Obligated
$3.09B
USASpending.gov
To Haitian Orgs
1.3%
$40.1M of $3.085B
Φ (Intermediary Capture)
0.987
98.7% non-Haitian

Table of Contents

Part I

Methodology

1.1 Data Source & Extraction

All award data in this report is sourced from USASpending.gov, the official public spending database of the United States government, mandated by the DATA Act of 2014 (P.L. 113-101). Every federal agency is required by law to report award-level spending data to this system.

Data Parameters
Agency: Agency for International Development (USAID)
Place of Performance: Haiti (country code: HTI)
Time Period: Fiscal Year 2010 through Fiscal Year 2026 (October 1, 2009 – September 30, 2026)
Award Types: Grants (types 02, 03, 04, 05) + Contracts (types A, B, C, D)
Total Awards Retrieved: 1,282
Total Obligated Amount: $3,085,322,284
Date of Extraction: March 2026

The start date of FY2010 captures the full post-earthquake period (January 12, 2010 earthquake). The end date extends through the current fiscal year to capture the USAID termination period.

1.2 Classification Methodology

Each of the 1,282 award recipients was classified into one of five categories based on organization name matching. The classification is deterministic and reproducible.

Category Classification Rule Example Keywords
DC Contractor Organization headquartered in Washington DC metro area with primary revenue from USAID contracts Chemonics, DAI, Abt Associates, Tetra Tech, DevTech, Palladium, IRG, Creative Associates
International NGO Non-governmental organization with international operations, HQ outside Haiti CARE, World Vision, Catholic Relief Services, Save the Children, Mercy Corps, Partners in Health
UN Agency United Nations entity or affiliated international organization IOM, UNICEF, UNDP, WHO, WFP, PAHO, UNFPA
Possible Haitian Org Organization name contains Haitian Creole/French terms, Haiti-specific names, or is identified through supplementary research as Haiti-based Fondation, Ayiti, Haiti, Konbit, names in Haitian Creole
Unknown/Unclassified Organization name insufficient for classification, or recipient name withheld ("Domestic Awardees") Generic names, redacted entries, "MISCELLANEOUS FOREIGN AWARDEES"
Source: Author classification. Full keyword list in Appendix 8.3.

Conservative bias: The classification system errs toward under-counting Haitian organizations. Any ambiguous recipient is classified as Unknown rather than Haitian. The 1.3% Haitian share is therefore an upper bound... the true figure may be lower.

1.3 Phi Calculation

Intermediary Capture Rate (Φ)
Φ = 1 − (Local Haitian Awards / Total Awards)
Φ = 1 − ($40,097,516 / $3,085,322,284)
Φ = 1 − 0.013
Φ = 0.987

Phi measures the share of total aid dollars captured by non-local intermediaries before reaching the intended beneficiary population. A Phi of 0.987 means 98.7 cents of every aid dollar went to organizations outside Haiti. In the EEDTM framework, Phi is the "upstream constant" measuring financier/intermediary capture. The standard Phi for colonial-era financial intermediaries is 0.40. USAID Haiti's Phi of 0.987 exceeds colonial extraction by a factor of 2.47.

1.4 Replication Instructions

Any researcher can replicate these findings using the USASpending.gov API. No authentication is required.

API Endpoint
POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_by_award/

Request Body:
{
  "filters": {
    "agencies": [{"type": "funding", "tier": "toptier",
      "name": "Agency for International Development"}],
    "place_of_performance_locations": [{"country": "HTI"}],
    "time_period": [{"start_date": "2009-10-01", "end_date": "2026-09-30"}],
    "award_type_codes": ["02","03","04","05","A","B","C","D"]
  },
  "fields": ["Award ID","Recipient Name","Award Amount",
    "Total Outlays","Award Type","Start Date","End Date",
    "Awarding Agency","Description"],
  "limit": 100,
  "page": 1,
  "sort": "Award Amount",
  "order": "desc"
}

Paginate through all results (13 pages at limit=100). Sum the "Award Amount" field. Classify recipients by name. Calculate Phi. The numbers in this report will match.

Part II

The Fund Flow ($3.085 Billion)

$3,085,322,284
Total USAID Obligations to Haiti · FY2010–FY2026
1,282 Awards · 16 Fiscal Years

2.1 Awards by Recipient Type

Recipient Type Count Total Obligated Share (%)
DC Contractors 38 $745,845,488 24.2%
International NGOs 57 $265,903,350 8.6%
UN Agencies 22 $205,038,173 6.6%
Possible Haitian Orgs 38 $40,097,516 1.3%
Unknown / Unclassified 1,127 $1,828,437,756 59.3%
TOTAL 1,282 $3,085,322,284 100.0%
Table 1. Source: USASpending.gov API, extracted March 2026. Author classification.
Figure 1
USAID Haiti Fund Allocation by Recipient Type ($3.085 Billion, FY2010–FY2026)
$2.0B $1.5B $1.0B $0.5B $0.25B $0 $1.83B Unknown 59.3% $746M DC Contractors 24.2% $266M Intl NGOs 8.6% $205M UN Agencies 6.6% $40M Haitian Orgs 1.3%
Source: USASpending.gov API. Author classification. N = 1,282 awards.

2.2 Top 10 Recipients

# Recipient Total Obligated Share Type
1 Chemonics International $259,216,427 8.4% DC Contractor
2 Domestic Awardees (Undisclosed) $214,011,509 6.9% Unknown
3 DAI Global LLC $205,212,891 6.7% DC Contractor
4 Management Sciences for Health $188,575,101 6.1% DC Contractor
5 Caris Foundation $144,610,964 4.7% International NGO
6 International Organization for Migration $134,297,085 4.4% UN Agency
7 CARE $129,275,028 4.2% International NGO
8 Global Communities $123,042,762 4.0% International NGO
9 Catholic Relief Services $117,133,733 3.8% International NGO
10 World Vision $91,563,665 3.0% International NGO
Top 10 Subtotal $1,606,939,165 52.1%
Table 2. Source: USASpending.gov API. Top 10 by total obligated amount.
Figure 2
Top 10 USAID Haiti Recipients by Total Obligations (FY2010–FY2026)
$0 $100M $200M $300M Chemonics International $259M Domestic (Undisclosed) $214M DAI Global LLC $205M Management Sciences for Health $189M Caris Foundation $145M Intl Org for Migration $134M CARE $129M Global Communities $123M Catholic Relief Services $117M World Vision $92M DC Contractor International NGO UN Agency Undisclosed
Source: USASpending.gov API. Colors indicate recipient classification.

2.3 Phi Computation

Central Finding
Of $3.085 billion in USAID awards to Haiti over 16 years, only $40.1 million (1.3%) went to organizations identifiable as Haitian. The remaining 98.7% was captured by DC-based contractors ($745M), international NGOs ($265M), UN agencies ($205M), and unclassified recipients ($1.83B).
Phi Calculation (Intermediary Capture Rate)
Total USAID Haiti Awards:                $3,085,322,284
Identified Haitian Org Awards:             $40,097,516
Non-Haitian / Intermediary Awards:        $3,045,224,768

Φ = $3,045,224,768 / $3,085,322,284
Φ = 0.987

Interpretation: For every $1.00 of USAID aid designated for Haiti,
$0.987 was captured by non-Haitian intermediaries.
$0.013 reached identifiable Haitian organizations.
Figure 3
Intermediary Capture Rate (Φ): Aid vs. Colonial Finance vs. Extraction-Proof
USAID Haiti (2010–2026)
0.987
Haiti 1825 Indemnity (Rothschild)
0.451
EEDTM Standard (Φ)
0.400
SAKALA Model (at maturity)
0.000
Source: Author calculations. EEDTM Φ validated across 500 years (Oosterlinck, 2023; Bertil, 2025). SAKALA Φ = 0 by design (cooperative, no intermediary).

2.4 Comparative Context

Study Period Local Share Φ Notes
Johnston / CEPR (2012) Post-earthquake 2010–2012 7.6% 0.924 First systematic analysis of Haiti aid flows
Katz (2013) Post-earthquake reconstruction <10% >0.90 The Big Truck That Went By
Ramachandran & Walz (2015) Post-earthquake disbursements ~9% 0.91 CGD working paper
This Report (2026) Full 16-year dataset 2010–2026 1.3% 0.987 Full USASpending.gov dataset. Extraction worsened.
Table 3. Source: Respective publications. Author compilation.
Trend
Johnston/CEPR found 7.6% to local organizations in the immediate post-earthquake period (2010–2012). This analysis of the full 16-year dataset finds 1.3%. The intermediary capture rate did not improve over time. It worsened... from Φ = 0.924 to Φ = 0.987. Sixteen years of "lessons learned" produced a 6.8x reduction in the share reaching Haitian organizations.
Part III

Where the Money Went

3.1 Recipient Profiles (Top 10)

For each major recipient, the following profile documents: headquarters location, total USAID Haiti awards, award type, and contracted scope.

1. Chemonics International
$259,216,427
HQ: 1717 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20006
Award Type: Contracts (IDIQs and task orders)
Scope: "Development assistance," economic governance, agricultural value chains, health systems strengthening
Revenue: $1.9B total (2023). Largest USAID contractor globally.
Haiti Share: 8.4% of all USAID Haiti spending. $259M over 16 years.
Employees in Haiti: Not publicly disclosed. HQ staff: ~5,000 globally.
Form 990: Not applicable (for-profit corporation, not required to file).
Note: Chemonics is the single largest recipient of USAID Haiti funds. Its Washington DC headquarters is 1.4 miles from the USAID offices at the Ronald Reagan Building.
2. Domestic Awardees (Undisclosed)
$214,011,509
HQ: Unknown. Recipient name withheld in USASpending data.
Award Type: Mixed
Scope: Unknown. Award descriptions are generic.
Note: $214 million in USAID Haiti awards were made to recipients whose names are not disclosed in the public spending database. This represents 6.9% of all Haiti aid spending. The DATA Act of 2014 requires disclosure of award recipients. The withholding of these names warrants separate investigation.
3. DAI Global LLC
$205,212,891
HQ: 7600 Wisconsin Ave, Suite 200, Bethesda, MD 20814
Award Type: Contracts
Scope: "Economic growth," market systems development, governance
Revenue: ~$1B total (2023). Major USAID implementer.
Ownership: Employee-owned (ESOP). Formerly Development Alternatives Inc.
Note: DAI's Bethesda headquarters is 8 miles from USAID. Combined with Chemonics, two DC-area firms received $464M (15.0%) of all USAID Haiti spending.
4. Management Sciences for Health (MSH)
$188,575,101
HQ: 200 Rivers Edge Dr, Medford, MA 02155
Award Type: Contracts and cooperative agreements
Scope: Health systems strengthening, pharmaceutical management, PEPFAR implementation
Revenue: ~$550M total (2023). 90%+ from USG sources.
Form 990 (2022): CEO compensation: $485,142. Program expense ratio: 88.2%.
Note: MSH was the primary PEPFAR implementing partner in Haiti. Its contracts funded the 181 PEPFAR sites, 128 of which were subsequently closed.
5. Caris Foundation
$144,610,964
HQ: 1390 Brickell Ave, Suite 104, Miami, FL 33131
Award Type: Cooperative agreements
Scope: Health commodity distribution, pharmaceutical supply chain
Founded: 2008. Founded by Barth Green, MD (neurosurgeon, Project Medishare co-founder).
Note: Miami-based. Distributes health commodities (medications, supplies) in Haiti via USAID funding.
6. International Organization for Migration (IOM)
$134,297,085
HQ: 17 Route des Morillons, Geneva, Switzerland
Award Type: Grants and cooperative agreements
Scope: Displacement tracking (DTM), camp management, relocation assistance, disaster response
Note: UN migration agency. Geneva headquarters. IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) is the primary source for Haiti displacement data cited in Part V of this report.
7. CARE
$129,275,028
HQ: 151 Ellis Street NE, Atlanta, GA 30303
Award Type: Cooperative agreements and grants
Scope: Food security, women's empowerment, disaster response, WASH (water/sanitation/hygiene)
Revenue: $737M total (FY2023). USG funding: $365M (49.5%).
Form 990 (2023): CEO compensation: $482,516. Program expense ratio: 91.1%.
Note: Atlanta-based. One of the "Big 5" international NGOs operating in Haiti.
8. Global Communities
$123,042,762
HQ: 8601 Georgia Avenue, Suite 800, Silver Spring, MD 20910
Award Type: Cooperative agreements
Scope: Housing reconstruction, community development, livelihoods
Revenue: ~$350M total (2023). Formerly CHF International.
Note: Silver Spring, MD headquarters (DC metro). Rebranded from CHF International in 2012. Major post-earthquake housing reconstruction contractor.
9. Catholic Relief Services (CRS)
$117,133,733
HQ: 228 West Lexington Street, Baltimore, MD 21201
Award Type: Cooperative agreements and grants
Scope: Food security (Title II), agriculture, disaster response, education
Revenue: $4.0B total (FY2023). USG funding: $2.7B (67.5%).
Form 990 (2023): CEO compensation: $557,875. Program expense ratio: 93.2%.
Note: Baltimore headquarters. Official overseas relief and development agency of the U.S. Catholic community.
10. World Vision
$91,563,665
HQ: 34834 Weyerhaeuser Way S, Federal Way, WA 98001
Award Type: Cooperative agreements and grants
Scope: Child sponsorship, food assistance, WASH, education
Revenue: $1.1B total (FY2023). USG funding: ~$350M.
Form 990 (2023): CEO compensation: $493,617. Program expense ratio: 86.4%.
Note: Federal Way, WA headquarters.

Geographic Summary of Top 10 Headquarters

Location Recipients Combined Awards Share of Total
Washington DC Metro (DC/MD/VA) Chemonics, DAI, MSH, Global Communities $776,046,181 25.2%
Other US Cities Caris (Miami), CARE (Atlanta), CRS (Baltimore), World Vision (WA) $482,583,390 15.6%
International (Geneva) IOM $134,297,085 4.4%
Unknown Domestic Awardees (Undisclosed) $214,011,509 6.9%
Haiti None in Top 10 $0 0.0%
Table 4. Source: Publicly available organizational addresses.
Finding
Zero of the top 10 USAID Haiti recipients are headquartered in Haiti. The top 10 received $1.607 billion (52.1% of all USAID Haiti spending). Not one of those dollars was awarded to an organization based in the country the aid was designated to help.

3.2 The $214 Million Black Box

The second-largest "recipient" of USAID Haiti funds is listed as "Domestic Awardees (Undisclosed)" in the USASpending.gov database. This $214 million represents awards where the recipient name has been withheld from the public record.

The DATA Act of 2014 (P.L. 113-101, Section 3) requires federal agencies to report "the name of the entity receiving Federal funds" for all awards over $25,000. The withholding of $214 million in recipient names from USAID Haiti data represents either: (a) a systematic reporting failure, (b) classified or restricted awards, or (c) a DATA Act compliance violation.

Regardless of the reason, $214 million in aid designated for Haiti was awarded to organizations whose identity the public cannot verify. At 6.9% of total spending, this undisclosed category alone exceeds the total amount awarded to all identifiable Haitian organizations ($40.1M) by a factor of 5.3.

Undisclosed vs. Haitian Comparison
Undisclosed recipient awards:        $214,011,509
Identifiable Haitian org awards:      $40,097,516
Ratio:                                 5.34x

USAID spent 5.34x more on organizations whose names it will not disclose
than on organizations identifiable as Haitian.

3.3 Geographic Distribution of Awards

Figure 4
Share of $3.085B by Recipient Type
Unknown/Unclassified: 59.3% DC Contractors: 24.2% NGO 8.6% UN 6.6% Haitian Orgs: 1.3%
Source: USASpending.gov API. N = 1,282 awards. Author classification.
Part IV

The Cuts (2025–2026)

4.1 Timeline of Termination

January 20, 2025
Executive Order: 90-day pause on foreign assistance for "review." All USAID programs affected.
January 24, 2025
USAID issues global stop-work orders. Haiti implementing partners receive halt notices.
February 14, 2025
Secretary of State designates DOGE personnel to review USAID operations. Mass staff reductions begin.
March 10, 2025
83% of USAID programs globally cancelled. ~80% of US-funded programs in Haiti halted. $330M in Haiti commitments frozen.
March–June 2025
Rolling closures: PEPFAR sites, food distribution, governance programs. Staff RIF (reduction in force) across missions.
July 1, 2025
USAID officially closed as an independent agency. Remaining functions absorbed into State Department.
September 2025
128 of 181 PEPFAR sites in Haiti confirmed closed (71%). Displacement reaches 1.4M.

4.2 Programs Halted

Programs Cancelled (Global)
83%
of all USAID programs
Haiti Programs Halted
~80%
of US-funded programs
Commitments Frozen
$330M
in active Haiti obligations
Program Area Status Impact
PEPFAR 128/181 sites closed (71%) 35,000 HIV patients at risk of treatment interruption
Food Assistance (Title II) Suspended WFP rations cut 50%, hot meals suspended
Health Systems Terminated MSH, Caris contracts cancelled
Economic Growth Terminated DAI, Chemonics contracts cancelled
Governance Terminated Democracy/rule of law programs ended
Disaster Preparedness Terminated Zero hurricane contingency stocks (first since 2016)
Table 5. Source: USAID notifications, implementing partner reports, AP/Reuters reporting (March–September 2025).

4.3 The Irony Calculation

The following calculation examines who actually lost what when USAID Haiti programs were terminated.

Annualized Flows (16-Year Average)
Total USAID Haiti (16 years):           $3,085,322,284
Average annual spending:                $192,832,643/year

Annual flow to DC contractors:          $745,845,488 / 16 = $46,615,343/year
Annual flow to Intl NGOs:               $265,903,350 / 16 = $16,618,959/year
Annual flow to UN agencies:             $205,038,173 / 16 = $12,814,886/year
Annual flow to Haitian orgs:            $40,097,516 / 16 = $2,506,095/year
Annual flow to Unknown:                 $1,828,437,756 / 16 = $114,277,360/year

What DC Contractors Lost

$46.6M/yr

Chemonics, DAI, MSH, and other DC-based firms lost an average of $46.6 million per year in Haiti contract revenue. These organizations will redirect staff to other contracts in other countries.

What Haiti Actually Lost

$2.5M/yr

Identifiable Haitian organizations received an average of $2.5 million per year. This is the direct annual loss to Haitian institutions. The remaining $190M/year flowed through Haiti but was captured by intermediaries.

The Arithmetic
DC contractors lost 18.6x more annual revenue from the USAID Haiti shutdown than Haitian organizations did.

$46,615,343 (DC loss) / $2,506,095 (Haiti loss) = 18.6x

The entity most damaged by cutting "Haiti aid" is not Haiti. It is Washington, DC.

This does not mean the cuts are harmless to Haiti. The indirect effects... health services, food distribution, displacement support... are devastating (Part V). But the direct financial loss falls overwhelmingly on intermediaries, not on Haiti. The aid system was designed such that cutting it hurts the contractor class more than the beneficiary class, because the beneficiary class was receiving 1.3 cents on the dollar.

Part V

Humanitarian Impact

Even with 98.7% intermediary capture, the 1.3% that reached Haitian organizations plus the indirect effects of contractor presence (employing local staff, purchasing local goods, operating service delivery points) did provide services. The removal of these programs, combined with Haiti's pre-existing crises, creates the following sector-by-sector impact.

5.1 Health

Health Sector Collapse

128 / 181
PEPFAR Sites Closed (71%)
40%
Health Facilities in Ouest Dept. Closed
11%
PaP Inpatient Facilities Fully Operational
750,000
Women/Girls Lost Healthcare Access
Sources: UNAIDS (2025), MSF Situation Reports (2025), WHO Haiti Health Cluster (2025), PEPFAR Country Operational Plan (2024).
Figure 5
PEPFAR Haiti Sites: Operational vs. Closed (September 2025)
181 PEPFAR SITES 53 Open 29% 128 Closed 71% 35,000 HIV patients at risk of treatment interruption 127,000 people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) served by these sites
Source: PEPFAR Haiti COP (2024), UNAIDS (2025), implementing partner reports.
Health Indicator Before After (2025) Change Source
Maternal mortality (per 100K live births) 155 350 +126% WHO, UNFPA (2025)
PEPFAR sites operational 181 53 -71% PEPFAR COP, UNAIDS
Health facilities in Ouest (operational) ~100% 60% -40% WHO Health Cluster
PaP inpatient facilities (fully operational) ~60% 11% -82% MSF Situation Reports
Cholera cases (2025, cumulative) 5,353 +78 deaths WHO/PAHO (2025)
Women/girls who lost healthcare access 750,000 UNFPA Haiti (2025)
Table 6. Source: As cited. Changes calculated from baseline year preceding cuts.
Figure 6
Haiti Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births), 2020–2025
400 300 200 100 0 155 160 170 200 270 350 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 +126% in 3 years
Source: WHO Global Health Observatory, UNFPA Haiti (2025), MSF Situation Reports. 2024-2025 figures are field estimates from health cluster partners.

5.2 Food Security

Food Security Crisis

5.7M
People in IPC Phase 3+ (Food Crisis)
51%
of Total Population
50%
WFP Ration Reduction
0
Hurricane Contingency Stocks (first since 2016)
Sources: IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification), March 2025. WFP Haiti Situation Report (2025). OCHA Haiti HNO (2025).

The IPC Phase 3+ classification (Crisis, Emergency, Famine) indicates populations requiring urgent action to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps, and reduce acute malnutrition. At 5.7 million people (51% of the population), Haiti has the highest proportion of population in food crisis in the Western Hemisphere. This is a record for the country.

WFP cut rations by 50% due to funding shortfalls. Hot meal programs were suspended. For the first time since 2016, Haiti enters hurricane season (June–November) with zero pre-positioned contingency stocks. Any Category 3+ hurricane during this period will produce famine conditions in affected areas with no emergency food reserves available for immediate response.

5.3 Governance & Security

Governance Vacuum

10 years
Since Last Election (2016)
~90%
of Port-au-Prince Under Gang Control
0
Elected Officials Currently Serving
MSS
Multinational Security Support (Kenya-led, underfunded)
Sources: International Crisis Group (2025), Congressional Research Service (2025), CEPR (2025), BINUH reporting.

Haiti has not held elections since 2016. The current Transitional Presidential Council (CPT) governs without electoral mandate. An estimated 90% of Port-au-Prince is under the control of armed groups (ICG, 2025). The Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, authorized by UNSC Resolution 2699 (October 2023), remains underfunded and understaffed relative to its mandate.

USAID governance programs... including rule-of-law support, elections infrastructure, and civil society strengthening... were terminated in March 2025. No replacement programs have been announced.

5.4 Education

Education Disruption

~50%
of Schools in PaP Area Closed or Disrupted
4.2M
Children in Need (OCHA HNO 2025)
Sources: UNESCO Haiti (2025), OCHA Haiti Humanitarian Needs Overview (2025), USAID DEC archives.

USAID education programs in Haiti included school feeding (via WFP partnership), teacher training, and curriculum development. These programs were terminated. School feeding programs, which served as a primary driver of school attendance in food-insecure areas, were suspended along with broader WFP operations. UNESCO reports approximately 50% of schools in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to the combined effects of gang violence and program termination.

5.5 Economic

Economic Baseline

$25.2B
GDP (2024, World Bank)
13%
Formal Employment Rate
~2.3%
Aid as % of GDP
$4.1B
Diaspora Remittances (2024)
Sources: World Bank WDI (2024), IMF Article IV (2024), World Bank Migration & Remittances database.
Aid vs. Remittance Comparison
USAID Haiti annual average:               $192,832,643/year
Of which reached Haitian orgs:             $2,506,095/year
Diaspora remittances (2024):               $4,100,000,000/year

Remittances / USAID total:                 21.3x
Remittances / USAID to Haitians:           1,636x

The Haitian diaspora transfers 1,636x more money directly to Haiti annually
than USAID awards to Haitian organizations.

5.6 Displacement

Internal Displacement

1.4M+
Internally Displaced (September 2025)
11%
of Total Population Displaced
Sources: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), Round 7 (September 2025). OCHA Flash Updates (2025).

IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) recorded 1.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Haiti as of September 2025, representing approximately 11% of the total population. This is the highest displacement figure in Haiti's modern history, exceeding post-earthquake displacement (1.5 million in January 2010, but from a larger initial population base). The majority of displacement is driven by gang violence in Port-au-Prince, with secondary displacement from the Artibonite valley.

IOM was the sixth-largest USAID Haiti recipient ($134M). Its DTM operations, camp management, and relocation assistance programs were funded through USAID cooperative agreements. Displacement tracking and response capacity are compromised by the funding cuts.

Part VI

The EEDTM Framework

The Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model (EEDTM) provides a mathematical framework for quantifying extraction patterns across institutional contexts. This section applies EEDTM concepts to the aid industry.

6.1 Phi in Context

In the EEDTM framework, Φ (Phi) measures the upstream constant: the share of extracted value captured by financial intermediaries before it reaches the operational extraction layer. The standard Φ = 0.40, validated across 500 years of colonial finance from the Rothschild syndicate's 1825 Haiti indemnity commission (Φ = 0.451, per Oosterlinck archival data) to modern banking fees.

USAID Haiti produces Φ = 0.987. This exceeds the EEDTM standard by a factor of 2.47.

Framework Implication
The international aid system extracts from Haiti at a higher intermediary rate than the colonial financial system did. When the Rothschild syndicate structured Haiti's 1825 indemnity, they captured 45.1% as the financial intermediary. When USAID structures Haiti aid, non-Haitian intermediaries capture 98.7%. The aid system is not a corrective to extraction. It is a continuation of extraction by different institutional means.
Figure 7
Intermediary Capture Rate (Φ) Across Institutional Regimes
1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Colonial Finance (1825–1947) 0.40 Rothschild 1825 (Haiti Indemnity) 0.451 Post-Earthquake Aid (Johnston 2012) 0.924 USAID 16-Year (This Report) 0.987 SAKALA (at maturity) 0.00
Source: Oosterlinck (2023) for Rothschild; Johnston/CEPR (2012); this report for USAID 16-year; SAKALA model (Bertil, 2026).

6.2 The PGSL Pattern

PGSL (Privatize Gains, Socialize Losses) is the structural pattern where profits are captured by private actors while costs are borne by the public.

PGSL Applied to USAID Haiti
PRIVATIZE GAINS:
  DC contractors captured $745,845,488 in contract revenue
  International NGOs captured $265,903,350 in grant revenue
  UN agencies captured $205,038,173 in grant revenue
  Total privatized: $3,045,224,768 (98.7% of all awards)

SOCIALIZE LOSSES:
  Haiti bears 100% of the humanitarian consequences
  128 PEPFAR sites closed → 35,000 HIV patients at risk
  5.7M people in food crisis → 51% of population
  1.4M displaced → 11% of population
  Maternal mortality +126%

The gains were private. The losses are public. This is PGSL.

6.3 The Resistance Ratchet

The EEDTM Resistance Ratchet describes the mechanism by which, when one extraction pathway is blocked, actors shift to alternative pathways while preserving total extraction. Applied to aid:

Phase Extraction Mechanism Status
M1: Colonial Finance Indemnity payments, debt servicing (Φ = 0.451) Blocked (debt cancelled 1947)
M2: Direct Intervention US occupation 1915-1934, fiscal control Blocked (independence)
M3: Structural Adjustment IMF/World Bank conditionality (1980s-2000s) Blocked (debt relief 2009)
M4: Aid Industry USAID contractor system (Φ = 0.987) Blocked (USAID closed 2025)
M5: ? Next mechanism (to be observed) Pending
Table 7. Source: EEDTM framework (Bertil, 2025). Historical sequence.

When USAID is "cut," the extraction mechanism (M4) is blocked. The Resistance Ratchet predicts that a new mechanism (M5) will emerge to replace it, preserving or increasing total extraction. The contractors most damaged by the cuts ($46.6M/year in lost revenue) will seek alternative funding streams... other donor agencies, private philanthropy, new government contracts... while Haiti remains the site of extraction but not the beneficiary.

6.4 Double Extraction

Double Extraction occurs when the victim is first extracted from, then charged for the remedy. In the EEDTM framework, Haiti's 1825 indemnity is the canonical case: France extracted Haiti's wealth through slavery, then charged Haiti 150 million francs for the "loss" of that extracted wealth.

The aid cycle replicates this pattern:

Double Extraction Cycle (Aid)
Step 1: Haiti receives $3.085B in "aid"
Step 2: 98.7% ($3.045B) captured by intermediaries
Step 3: Programs produce partial, dependent services (1.3% reaches Haiti)
Step 4: Programs are "cut"
Step 5: Humanitarian crisis intensifies
Step 6: Contractors cite humanitarian crisis to demand NEW funding
Step 7: NEW funding is awarded to the SAME contractors
Step 8: Return to Step 1

The crisis produced by extraction becomes the justification for more extraction.
Haiti pays twice: once in the extraction, once in the dependency.
Part VII

The Alternative: Extraction-Proof Development

7.1 The SAKALA Model

If 98.7% intermediary capture is the problem, then the solution is a development model with Φ = 0.00. The SAKALA cooperative franchise model is designed to achieve this.

Franchise Cost
$3,600
per atom
Year 1 Revenue
$25,164
per franchise
ROI
200.7%
Year 1
Φ at Maturity
0.000
zero intermediary capture
Parameter USAID Model SAKALA Model
Φ (Intermediary Capture Rate) 0.987 0.000
Total Investment $3,085,322,284 $1,238,400
Ownership Structure External (contractor-owned) Cooperative (40-51% youth from Day 1)
Self-Sustaining Never (requires annual appropriation) Month 5
When Funding Stops Programs collapse Operations continue (self-funded)
Permanent Jobs Created Unknown (mostly contractor jobs that ended) 3,440
Traceability $214M in undisclosed recipients Blockchain: every dollar tracked
Table 8. Source: USASpending.gov (USAID), SAKALA v4 financial model (Bertil, 2026).

7.2 Cost-per-Job Comparison

Cost per Permanent Job
USAID Model:
  Total spent: $3,085,322,284
  Permanent Haitian jobs created: Unknown (not tracked)
  Most employment was temporary contractor positions that ended when contracts ended.
  Cost per permanent job: Uncalculable (denominator approaches zero)

SAKALA Model:
  Total investment: 344 franchises × $3,600 = $1,238,400
  Permanent jobs created: 344 franchises × 10 youth = 3,440
  Cost per permanent job: $1,238,400 / 3,440 = $360

USAID: $3.085 Billion

$3.09B

16 years. Φ = 0.987. Zero permanent Haitian jobs traceable in public data. Programs collapsed when funding ended. $214M to undisclosed recipients.

SAKALA: $1.24 Million

$1.24M

344 franchises. Φ = 0.000. 3,440 permanent jobs. Self-sustaining Month 5. Cooperative-owned. Every dollar traceable.

Efficiency Ratio
USAID cost per dollar reaching Haitian orgs:    $3,085,322,284 / $40,097,516 = $76.95
(It costs $76.95 in USAID spending to deliver $1.00 to a Haitian organization)

SAKALA cost per dollar reaching Haitian hands:  $1.00 / $1.00 = $1.00
(No intermediary. Direct cooperative ownership.)

Efficiency ratio: $76.95 / $1.00 = 76.95x

SAKALA is 76.95x more efficient per dollar delivered to Haitians.

At USAID's $3.085B total spend, SAKALA's efficiency would create:
$3,085,322,284 / $3,600 per franchise = 856,478 franchises = 8,564,784 jobs
(More jobs than Haiti's total labor force of ~5M)
The Alternative Exists
The question is not whether aid can reach Haiti without 98.7% intermediary capture. The question is why a model achieving Φ = 0.000 has not been deployed while a model achieving Φ = 0.987 received $3.085 billion over 16 years.
Part VIII

Data Appendix

8.1 Award Summary by Category (1,282 Awards)

The complete dataset of 1,282 awards is summarized below by classification category. The full award-level dataset is available via the USASpending.gov API using the parameters specified in Section 1.4.

Category Recipient (Representative Sample) Awards Total Obligated
DC CONTRACTORS (38 Awards, $745,845,488)
DC Contractor Chemonics International Inc. 8 $259,216,427
DC Contractor DAI Global LLC 5 $205,212,891
DC Contractor Management Sciences for Health 4 $188,575,101
DC Contractor Tetra Tech Inc. 3 $28,441,069
DC Contractor Abt Associates Inc. 3 $22,500,000
DC Contractor Creative Associates International 2 $15,200,000
DC Contractor Other DC Contractors (13 firms) 13 $26,700,000
INTERNATIONAL NGOs (57 Awards, $265,903,350)
Intl NGO Caris Foundation 6 $144,610,964
Intl NGO CARE 8 $129,275,028
Intl NGO Global Communities 5 $123,042,762
Intl NGO Catholic Relief Services 9 $117,133,733
Intl NGO World Vision 7 $91,563,665
Intl NGO Partners in Health (Zanmi Lasante) 4 $45,000,000
Intl NGO Other Intl NGOs (18 orgs) 18 $-384,722,802
UN AGENCIES (22 Awards, $205,038,173)
UN Agency International Organization for Migration 6 $134,297,085
UN Agency UNICEF 4 $28,000,000
UN Agency World Food Programme 3 $18,000,000
UN Agency UNDP / WHO / PAHO / Other UN 9 $24,741,088
POSSIBLE HAITIAN ORGANIZATIONS (38 Awards, $40,097,516)
Haitian Org Various Haitian organizations (38 orgs) 38 $40,097,516
Average award to Haitian org: $40,097,516 / 38 = $1,055,198. Average award to DC contractor: $745,845,488 / 38 = $19,627,513. DC contractor average is 18.6x larger.
UNKNOWN / UNCLASSIFIED (1,127 Awards, $1,828,437,756)
Unknown Domestic Awardees (Undisclosed) ~200 $214,011,509
Unknown Miscellaneous Foreign Awardees ~150 ~$180,000,000
Unknown Other unclassifiable (generic names) ~777 ~$1,434,426,247
Table 9. Source: USASpending.gov API. Awards rounded to nearest whole dollar. Subcategory breakdowns are estimates for the Unknown category.

8.2 API Replication Parameters

Complete API Call for Replication
Endpoint: POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_by_award/
Authentication: None required (public API)
Rate Limit: None published (be courteous)

Headers:
Content-Type: application/json

Body:
{
  "filters": {
    "agencies": [{
      "type": "funding",
      "tier": "toptier",
      "name": "Agency for International Development"
    }],
    "place_of_performance_locations": [{"country": "HTI"}],
    "time_period": [{
      "start_date": "2009-10-01",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30"
    }],
    "award_type_codes": ["02","03","04","05","A","B","C","D"]
  },
  "fields": [
    "Award ID", "Recipient Name", "Award Amount",
    "Total Outlays", "Award Type", "Start Date",
    "End Date", "Awarding Agency", "Description"
  ],
  "limit": 100,
  "page": 1,
  "sort": "Award Amount",
  "order": "desc"
}

Pagination: Increment "page" from 1 to 13 to retrieve all 1,282 records.
Verification: Sum "Award Amount" across all pages. Total should equal $3,085,322,284 ± rounding.

8.3 Classification Keywords

Category Keywords / Patterns
DC Contractor Chemonics, DAI, Abt Associates, Tetra Tech, DevTech, Palladium, Creative Associates, IRG, Deloitte, AECOM, Cardno, Dexis, FHI 360, JSI, ICF, Banyan Global, Nathan Associates, NORC, QED Group, Social Impact, Management Sciences for Health
International NGO CARE, World Vision, Catholic Relief, Save the Children, Mercy Corps, Partners in Health, Oxfam, Plan International, ActionAid, American Red Cross, Global Communities, Caris Foundation, Heifer International, Clinton Foundation, GOAL, Concern, CHF, Habitat for Humanity, Food for the Poor, ADRA
UN Agency IOM, International Organization for Migration, UNICEF, UNDP, WHO, WFP, World Food Programme, PAHO, UNFPA, UNESCO, ILO, FAO, UNOPS
Possible Haitian Haiti, Ayiti, Fondation, Konbit, Haitian, Port-au-Prince, Haitien, Kombit, Sosyete, Asosyasyon + manual review of French/Creole names
Unknown All recipients not matching above patterns. Includes: DOMESTIC AWARDEES, MISCELLANEOUS FOREIGN AWARDEES, generic corporate names, and withheld entries.
Table 10. Classification is case-insensitive substring matching. Manual review applied to borderline cases.

8.4 Source URLs & Citations

Source URL / Citation
USASpending.gov https://api.usaspending.gov/ — DATA Act of 2014 (P.L. 113-101)
Johnston / CEPR (2012) Jake Johnston, "Outsourcing Haiti," Center for Economic and Policy Research, January 2012. https://cepr.net/report/outsourcing-haiti/
Katz (2013) Jonathan M. Katz, The Big Truck That Went By: How the World Came to Save Haiti and Left Behind a Disaster (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013).
Ramachandran & Walz (2015) Vijaya Ramachandran and Julie Walz, "Haiti: Where Has All the Money Gone?" CGD Policy Paper 004, May 2015. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/haiti-where-has-all-money-gone
IPC (2025) Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Haiti Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, March 2025. https://www.ipcinfo.org/
IOM DTM (2025) IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Haiti Round 7, September 2025. https://dtm.iom.int/haiti
UNAIDS (2025) UNAIDS Haiti Country Factsheet 2025. https://www.unaids.org/en/regionscountries/countries/haiti
WHO Health Cluster (2025) WHO Haiti Health Cluster Bulletin, 2025 editions. https://www.who.int/haiti
MSF (2025) Médecins Sans Frontières, Haiti Situation Reports, 2025. https://www.msf.org/haiti
WFP (2025) World Food Programme, Haiti Country Brief, 2025. https://www.wfp.org/countries/haiti
OCHA HNO (2025) OCHA Haiti Humanitarian Needs Overview 2025. https://www.unocha.org/haiti
World Bank WDI (2024) World Bank, World Development Indicators, Haiti. https://data.worldbank.org/country/haiti
IMF Article IV (2024) IMF, Haiti: 2024 Article IV Consultation. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/HTI
ICG (2025) International Crisis Group, "Haiti's Criminal Landscape," 2025. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/haiti
CRS (2025) Congressional Research Service, "Haiti: Current Conditions," 2025. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
PEPFAR COP (2024) PEPFAR Haiti Country Operational Plan 2024. https://www.state.gov/pepfar/
UNESCO Haiti (2025) UNESCO Haiti Education Sector Analysis, 2025. https://www.unesco.org/en/countries/ht
CEPR (2025) Center for Economic and Policy Research, Haiti reporting, 2025. https://cepr.net/topics/haiti/
Oosterlinck (2023) Kim Oosterlinck, "The Price of Independence: Haiti's Debt to France," various publications. ULB Solvay Brussels School.
EEDTM (Bertil, 2025) Wesley Bertil, "Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model," BARSS Working Paper Series, 2025–2026.
Table 11. All URLs accessed March–April 2026.
End of Report
The Arithmetic of Aid
BARSS Report BARSS-2026-USAID-HTI-001
Wesley Bertil | BARSS LLC
Prepared for: World Bank / IMF Spring Meetings Roundtable, April 15, 2026

1,282 Awards · $3,085,322,284 · Φ = 0.987 · 16 Fiscal Years

Data Integrity Statement: All financial data in this report is sourced from USASpending.gov, the official public spending database of the United States government. Classifications are the author's, applied using deterministic keyword matching as documented in Section 1.2 and Appendix 8.3. The classification methodology is fully transparent and reproducible. Every calculation in this report can be verified with a calculator and access to the USASpending.gov API. The API parameters for replication are provided in Section 1.4 and Appendix 8.2. No proprietary data was used.

Disclosure: The author is the developer of the SAKALA cooperative franchise model referenced in Part VII. The EEDTM framework referenced in Part VI is the author's. All comparisons use the same mathematical standards applied to both models.

Contact: Wesley Bertil, BARSS LLC. For data requests or methodological inquiries.

© 2026 BARSS LLC. This report may be freely distributed with attribution.