BARSS Research • January 2026
Haiti Funding Sources and Misallocation Analysis
Where the Money Goes — and Where It Doesn't
θ = 0.86
Only 14 cents of every aid dollar reaches the Haitian frontline
0.86
USAID Haiti Theta
86% extracted before delivery
14%
Reaches Frontline
$14M per $100M disbursed
$13.34B
Committed (2010-2020)
Only $6.43B disbursed (48.2%)
6 homes
Red Cross Built
From $500M raised
$2B
PetroCaribe Embezzled
Zero prosecutions
BARSS Research Division | Wesley Bertil
Bertil's Analytics Research Sciences & Sorceries
9 Parts • EEDTM Framework Validation • 20+ Source Citations
Applying the Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model to humanitarian aid flows
Executive Summary
This report analyzes money flows into and through Haiti, documenting systematic extraction patterns that explain why decades of international aid have failed to produce sustainable development or democratic stability. The analysis reveals that election funding ($137M estimated) is a fraction of annual security, humanitarian, and aid spending, yet elections remain "materially impossible" due to lack of guaranteed funding.
Key Finding
Applying EEDTM analysis, we calculate a Theta of 0.86 for USAID Haiti aid (only 14% reaches local frontline), consistent with the extraction coefficient documented across 20 BARSS cases.
Whether through 1825 debt bondage, 2010 earthquake "aid," or 2025 security support, Haiti consistently experiences Theta ~0.80–0.86 extraction. The mechanism changes; the mathematics remain constant.
Part I
International Aid Commitments (2020–2026)
Billions committed, fractions disbursed
Total Aid Landscape
| Period |
Total Committed |
Disbursed |
Disbursement Rate |
| 2010–2020 Post-Earthquake |
$13.34 billion |
$6.43 billion |
48.2% |
| FY2021–2024 US Only |
$1.1 billion |
Unknown |
— |
| FY2024 USAID Haiti |
$368 million |
In progress |
Multiyear programs |
By Donor Country (Historical Recovery)
| Donor |
Committed |
Disbursement Rate |
| Venezuela |
$1.34 billion |
24% |
| United States |
$1.15 billion |
30% |
| IDB |
$544 million |
60% |
| IMF |
$311 million |
95% |
| Spain |
$308 million |
85% |
| EU |
$299 million |
60% |
| Canada |
$289 million |
91% |
| France |
$277 million |
72% |
Recent US Aid (2022–2024)
| Fiscal Year |
Bilateral Assistance |
Notes |
| FY2022 |
$237.4 million |
Biden Administration |
| FY2023 |
$204.5 million |
Increased HNP support |
| FY2024 |
$368 million obligated |
Multiyear contracts |
Trump Administration Impact (2025–2026)
Funding Freeze: $330 million in outstanding commitments halted
Program Cuts: 80% of US-funded programs affected
Sectors Impacted: Food security, drinking water, primary healthcare, education, protection
Part II
USAID Haiti Specifically
Following the dollar from Washington to Port-au-Prince
"Of every $100 million disbursed, $14 million reaches the people it was meant to help."
Budget Breakdown FY2024
| Category |
Percentage |
Dollar Amount |
| Humanitarian Aid |
40%+ |
$147M+ |
| Health Programs |
20%+ |
$74M+ |
| Democracy/Governance |
~10% |
~$37M |
| Economic Growth |
~15% |
~$55M |
| Other |
~15% |
~$55M |
Where USAID Money Actually Goes
56–66%
DC "Beltway" Contractors
$56–66M per $100M
18–26%
Secondary Contractors
$18–26M per $100M
0.9–3%
Direct to Haitian Orgs
$0.9–3M per $100M
~14%
Reaches Local Frontline
$14M per $100M
| Recipient Type |
Percentage |
Per $100M |
| DC "Beltway" contractors |
56–66% |
$56–66M |
| Secondary contractors |
18–26% |
$18–26M |
| Direct to Haitian orgs |
0.9–3% |
$0.9–3M |
| Reaches local frontline |
~14% |
$14M |
Election/Democracy Support
- Recent Award (Dec 2024): Chemonics — $25M "Justice Renewal and Advancement"
- Citizen Security: Tetra Tech — $24M (5-year program)
- Direct Election Support: Unknown / minimal
Trump Administration Changes
USAID Presence: One rotating position by December 2024
Remote Management: US staff managing from United States
Staff Departures: At least one-third of local Haitian staff departed
Audit Initiated: December 2024 audit on monitoring practices
Part III
UN Spending in Haiti
The least funded of the underfunded
BINUH (UN Integrated Office)
| Metric |
Value |
| Annual Budget |
~$50M (estimated) |
| Mandate |
Political mission, not peacekeeping |
| Staff |
Civilian personnel only |
Multinational Security Support (MSS) Mission
| Metric |
Value |
| Estimated Annual Need |
$600 million |
| Actually Pledged |
$84 million (initial) |
| Trust Fund Balance (May 2025) |
$110.9 million |
| US Pledge Total |
$300 million |
| Personnel (March 2025) |
~1,000 (vs 2,500 planned) |
| Rubio Waiver (Feb 2025) |
$40 million allowed |
Gang Suppression Force (October 2025)
- Authorized Personnel: 5,550 (5,500 uniformed + 50 civilian)
- Transition: From MSS to UN-authorized force
- Funding: Still voluntary contributions
UN Humanitarian Response
| Year |
Requirement |
Funded |
Funding Rate |
| 2024 |
$674 million |
~$81M |
~12% |
| 2025 |
$880–908 million |
<$82M |
<9% |
"Haiti remains the least funded of our underfunded country appeals globally."
— United Nations
Part IV
Security Spending Analysis
$720M+ per year in security, security worsening
Haiti Government Security Budget (2024–2025)
| Institution |
Budget (Gourdes) |
Budget (USD) |
| Police (PNH) + Military Combined |
30+ billion |
~$230M |
| Armed Forces (FAd'H) |
6.976 billion |
$52.9M |
| Ministry of Defense Total |
7.9 billion |
~$60M |
FAd'H Budget Growth
| Fiscal Year |
Budget (Gourdes) |
Budget (USD) |
% GDP |
GDP Used |
| 2023–2024 |
1.272 billion |
$9.6M (at 132.5 HTG/USD) |
0.06% |
$16B (World Bank 2023) |
| 2024–2025 |
6.976 billion |
$52.9M (at 131.8 HTG/USD) |
0.28% |
$19.1B (IMF est. 2024) |
| 2025–2026 |
10.7 billion |
~$82M (at ~130 HTG/USD) |
~0.3% |
~$20B (est.) |
Note: USD conversions use BRH mid-rate for each fiscal year. GDP denominators from World Bank/IMF. The 5.5x budget increase (FY24 to FY25) is the relevant finding regardless of % GDP precision.
FAd'H budget grew 5.5x in one year (from $9.6M to $52.9M), yet security continues to deteriorate. The 2025–2026 projection of $82M would represent an 8.5x increase in two years.
International Security Support
| Source |
Amount |
Status |
| US MSS Pledge |
$300 million |
Partial disbursement |
| US DOD Support |
$200 million |
Enabling support |
| Canada Trust Fund |
Primary contributor |
$110.9M in fund |
| Kenya Deployment |
In-kind |
~400 officers |
Security vs Election Spending Comparison
| Category |
Annual Amount |
Notes |
| Haiti Gov Security |
$230M+ |
Police + Military |
| MSS Mission (needed) |
$600M |
Only $110M in fund |
| US Security Aid |
$300M pledged |
Partial disbursement |
| TOTAL SECURITY |
$1.13 billion/year |
If fully funded |
| Election Cost (CEP) |
$137 million |
One-time, unfunded |
Key Insight
The cost of ONE election cycle ($137M) equals:
• 12% of total annual security spending needs ($137M / $1.13B)
• 23% of the MSS annual funding need ($137M / $600M)
• 46% of the US MSS pledge ($137M / $300M)
Part V
Misallocation and Corruption Data
Documented theft, zero accountability
"$2 billion embezzled. 14 soccer stadiums none completed. Zero prosecutions."
PetroCaribe Scandal (2008–2018)
$4.24B
Total Oil Received
| Metric |
Amount |
| Total Oil Received |
$4.237 billion |
| Development Fund |
$1.738 billion |
| Embezzled/Wasted |
$2 billion |
| Debt to Venezuela |
$2.1 billion |
| 2024 Settlement |
$500M paid, $1.69B forgiven |
Named Officials
- Michel Martelly — 72.21% of funds, US sanctioned Aug 2024
- Laurent Lamothe — PM, $60M+ misappropriated, US barred Jun 2023
- Jovenel Moise — Court charged: collusion, favoritism, embezzlement
- Felix Bautista — Dominican, OFAC designated Jun 2018
Failed Projects
Foreign Affairs Ministry: $14.7M contract, $10M paid
NEVER BUILT
Fort National Housing: $174M contract, $46M+ paid
UNFINISHED
14 Soccer Stadiums: $25.6M
NONE COMPLETED
Prosecutions: ZERO — despite court recommendations
CIRH / Clinton Reconstruction Commission
| Metric |
Value |
| Total Funds Channeled |
$9.04 billion (Jan 2010–Jun 2012) |
| Total Disbursed |
~$6.04 billion |
| To Haitian Government |
9.6% of disbursed ($580M) |
| To Local Haitian Orgs |
0.6% of disbursed ($36.2M) |
| To Non-Haitian Entities |
89.8% of disbursed ($5.4 billion) |
| Final Report Submitted |
REFUSED |
Note: Percentages are of disbursed amount (~$6.04B), not total channeled ($9.04B). The gap between channeled and disbursed is itself an extraction vector.
American Red Cross Haiti
6
Homes Actually Built
Claimed 130,000
$500M
Raised from Donors
Unaccounted spending
$83M
Cost Per Home
$500M / 6 homes
25%
Actual Overhead
Claimed 9%
| Claimed |
Actual |
| 9% overhead |
25% overhead |
| 130,000 homes |
6 homes built |
| $500M raised |
Unaccounted spending |
| Efficient delivery |
$83 million per home |
Congressional Finding (Grassley Report):
• Red Cross does not know how much each project cost
• Spent 25% ($125M) on internal expenses
• "Complex yet inaccurate" accounting system
• Tried to terminate GAO audit
Clinton-Era Syndicate (BARSS Documented)
| Defendant |
Mechanism |
Extraction |
| Clayton Homes |
Toxic product sale |
$1.5M+ contract |
| Chemonics |
Overhead extraction |
$175M+ total |
| Riceland Foods |
Subsidized dumping |
$554M subsidies |
| Sae-A Trading |
Public risk/private gain |
80% public funding |
Extraction Coefficient
θ = 0.80 (verified Sae-A case)
Source: BARSS Internal — Clinton-Era Syndicate: Humanitarian Extraction Forensic Audit
Transparency International
| Metric |
Value |
| 2024 CPI Score |
16 out of 100 |
| Ranking |
Among lowest in Americas |
| Comparison |
Nicaragua (14), Venezuela (10) |
| Global Average |
43 |
Part VI
Potential Funding Redirections
The money exists — the will does not
Current Spending That Could Be Reprioritized
| Source |
Current Use |
Potential Reallocation |
| MSS Shortfall Fund |
Under-deployed security |
$50M to elections |
| USAID Democracy Programs |
Governance projects |
Direct CEP support |
| UN Humanitarian Gap |
91% unfunded |
Reallocate 10% |
| FAd'H Budget Increase |
$43M increase in 1 year |
Election infrastructure |
Donor Programs That Could Pivot
| Program |
Current Budget |
Election Potential |
| USAID Democracy/Governance |
~$37M/year |
Direct CEP funding |
| Canada Stabilization |
$110M+ contributed |
Electoral support |
| EU Caribbean Development |
Multi-million |
Democracy support |
| Japan Technical Assistance |
Active |
Electoral technology |
Private Sector Contributions
| Source |
Potential |
Mechanism |
| BAM BAM Oligarchs |
$1B+ combined wealth |
Mandatory contribution |
| Digicel Haiti |
$300M revenue |
Election fund levy |
| Remittance Companies |
Transaction fees |
Dedicated election fund |
| International Hotels |
Tourism recovery stake |
Democracy investment |
Diaspora Remittances as Funding Source
$3.4–4.1B
Annual Remittances
World Bank 2023–2024
22–27%
% of GDP
Varies with measurement
1.5–2M
Diaspora Population
| Metric |
Value |
| Annual Remittances |
$3.4–4.1 billion (World Bank 2023–2024; range reflects measurement methodology) |
| % of GDP |
22–27% (varies with GDP estimate and remittance measurement) |
| Diaspora Population |
1.5–2 million |
| Current Use |
80.9% food |
Potential Mechanisms
- Diaspora Bonds: $200M+ potential (200K investors x $1,000)
- Voluntary Election Fund: $1 per transfer = ~$13.6M annually (est. 13.6M transactions at $250 avg)
- Matched Giving Programs: Foundation multipliers
Part VII
Cost-Benefit Analysis
$720M for security that fails vs $137M for elections that might work
Cost of Continued Instability
| Metric |
Annual Cost |
| GDP Contraction (4.2% in FY2024) |
~$800M lost output |
| Textile Job Losses (45%) |
$50M+ wages lost |
| Trade Deficit |
15%+ of GDP |
| Displaced Persons (1.4M) |
Humanitarian burden |
| Brain Drain |
Incalculable |
Six consecutive years of negative growth
Side-by-Side: Security Approach vs Elections
$720M+
• MSS Mission (1 year): $110M spent
• Haiti Police/Military: $230M/year
• US Security Aid: $380M pledged
RESULT:
90% of Port-au-Prince still gang-controlled
Security deteriorating
Violence increased
1,617 killed Q1 2025
$137M
• CEP Full Budget: $137 million
• First Round Only: ~$70 million
• Basic Infrastructure: ~$40 million
RETURN:
Legitimate government
Foreign direct investment unlocked
IMF/World Bank programs enabled
Diaspora investment confidence
The Math
Elections Cost: $137M (one-time)
Instability Cost: $800M+/year (ongoing)
Security Spending: $720M+/year (ineffective)
ROI: If elections enable even 10% recovery, benefit exceeds cost in Year 1
Part VIII — Framework Validation
EEDTM Analysis of Haiti Aid Flows
The extraction constant holds — even in humanitarian aid
"The mechanism changes; the mathematics remain constant."
Calculating Theta for Haiti Aid
Using the EEDTM (Elite Extraction with Differential Targeting Model):
USAID Haiti (Documented)
| Flow Point |
Extraction Rate |
| DC Contractors |
56–66% retained |
| Secondary Contractors |
18–26% retained |
| Direct to Haiti |
0.9–3% |
| Theta (θ) |
0.86 |
θ = 1 − (Local Retention / Total Disbursement)
θ = 1 − (0.14 / 1.00) = 0.86
Comparison to BARSS Framework
| Case |
Theta |
Mechanism |
| USAID Haiti |
0.86 |
Contractor intermediation |
| Sae-A/Caracol |
0.80 |
Public funding/private profit |
| Haiti 1825 |
0.86 |
Debt double heist |
| EEDTM Direct Average |
0.85 |
Colonial/monopoly extraction |
Key Finding
Haiti aid extraction (θ=0.86) matches the EEDTM direct extraction coefficient (θd=0.85), validating the framework across modern humanitarian aid flows.
Whether the mechanism is 19th-century debt bondage or 21st-century USAID contracting, the extraction rate converges on the same constant.
Who Captures the Extraction?
| Recipient |
Capture Rate |
| US Contractors (Chemonics, etc.) |
56–66% |
| International NGOs |
15–25% |
| UN/Multilateral Overhead |
5–10% |
| Local Elite Partners |
3–5% |
| Beneficiaries |
9–14% |
The "Aid Theta" Framework
Proposed New Metric: Aid Theta (θa) = Percentage of aid captured by non-beneficiary intermediaries
| Aid Channel |
Aid Theta |
Effective Delivery |
| GiveDirectly |
0.15 |
84.8% |
| Direct Implementers |
0.25–0.35 |
65–75% |
| Foundation Average |
0.40–0.50 |
50–60% |
| University Grants |
0.40–0.70 |
30–60% |
| USAID Haiti |
0.86 |
14% |
Implications for Election Funding
If $137M were allocated for elections through standard aid channels:
| Theta Applied |
Reaches Election Infrastructure |
Lost to Intermediaries |
| Theta 0.86 (USAID standard) |
$19.2M |
$117.8M |
| Theta 0.50 (Foundation average) |
$68.5M |
$68.5M |
| Theta 0.15 (GiveDirectly model) |
$116.5M |
$20.5M |
Recommendation: Any election funding must bypass high-Theta intermediaries and flow through verified low-extraction channels.
Part IX
Conclusions and Recommendations
Breaking the extraction pattern
Summary of Findings
1. Haiti receives substantial aid commitments ($1.1B US alone FY2021–2024), but disbursement rates are low (48–60%)
2. Of disbursed funds, 86% is extracted before reaching beneficiaries (USAID documented)
3. Security spending dominates ($720M+/year) while elections remain unfunded ($137M needed)
4. Corruption is documented but unprosecuted (PetroCaribe $2B, zero prosecutions)
5. Election cost equals 19% of annual security spending yet is described as "materially impossible"
6. Diaspora remittances ($3.4–4.1B) dwarf all foreign aid combined but remain untapped for development
Recommended Funding Redirections
| Source |
Action |
Amount |
| MSS Trust Fund |
Reallocate 20% |
$22M |
| USAID Democracy |
Direct CEP grant |
$37M |
| Canada Stabilization |
Election earmark |
$25M |
| Diaspora Bond |
Launch program |
$50M |
| Oligarch Contribution |
Mandatory levy |
$10M |
| TOTAL |
|
$144M |
The Core Argument
"We cannot have elections until we have security."
Result: $720M+ spent on security
Security worsening
No elections
"We cannot have security until we have legitimate government."
Implication: $137M in elections
May be more effective than $720M in security
Break the cycle
"Whether through 1825 debt bondage, 2010 earthquake 'aid,' or 2025 security support, Haiti consistently experiences Theta ~0.80–0.86 extraction. The mechanism changes; the mathematics remain constant."
Breaking the Pattern
Election funding that bypasses high-Theta intermediaries could be the first transfer to Haiti where majority value reaches intended recipients.
Sources
Government / Multilateral
Research / Think Tanks
Journalism
BARSS Internal
- WKKF Fund Flow Research Brief
- Haiti PetroCaribe Comprehensive Intelligence
- BAM BAM Oligarchs Forensic Profile
- Clinton-Era Syndicate: Humanitarian Extraction Forensic Audit